The race for Champions League qualification is more competitive than ever with five Premier League teams guaranteed qualification, but who will make the cut?
The race for the top five is tight, with only seven points separating Manchester City in third and Aston Villa in seventh following City’s 1-0 home win over Wolves on Friday.
Opta’s supercomputer has run the numbers on each team’s chances – so who do they expect to get over the line?
Premier League winners Liverpool have already guaranteed Champions League football, while Opta put Arsenal’s prospects at 99.9 per cent.
Man City – who have a favourable run-in – now have a 97 per cent chance of making those Champions League spots.
Newcastle’s chances remain at 84 per cent of making the top five ahead of their trip to Brighton on Sunday, live on Sky Sports.
Sunday 4th May 1:00pm
Kick off 2:00pm
Chelsea occupy the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot, but their 49 per cent chance is lower than sixth-placed Nottingham Forest’s 58 per cent, which dropped from 75 per cent after Thursday’s 2-0 home loss to Brentford.
Chelsea go to Forest on the final day of the season.
Sunday 4th May 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Aston Villa‘s prospects, though, are fading in the eyes of the supercomputer. They are given just a 12 per cent chance of making the top five.
Who plays who in the final weeks?
The run-in sees two games between Champions League hopefuls as Chelsea go to Newcastle on May 11, before Forest host Chelsea on the final day of the season.
And on top of that, there is likely to be a SIXTH Premier League team in the Champions League next season, after Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United convincingly won their Europa League semi-final first legs.
Should Tottenham and Manchester United both reach the final in Bilbao, one of them will directly qualify for the Champions League, despite finishing in the bottom half of the table.
Manchester City’s remaining fixtures
May 10: Southampton vs Man City, kick-off 4pm
May 20: Man City vs Bournemouth, kick-off 7pm
May 25: Fulham vs Man City, kick-off 4pm
Nottingham Forest’s remaining fixtures
Monday: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports
May 11: Nottingham Forest vs Leicester, kick-off 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports
May 18: West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, kick-off 2.15pm
May 25: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, kick-off 4pm
Newcastle’s remaining fixtures
Sunday: Brighton vs Newcastle, kick-off 2pm, live on Sky Sports
May 11: Newcastle vs Chelsea, kick-off 12pm
May 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, kick-off 4.30pm
May 25: Newcastle vs Everton, kick-off 4pm
Chelsea’s remaining fixtures
Sunday: Chelsea vs Liverpool, kick-off 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
May 11: Newcastle vs Chelsea, kick-off 12pm
May 16: Chelsea vs Man Utd, kick-off 8pm
May 25: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, kick-off 4pm
Aston Villa’s remaining fixtures
Saturday: Aston Villa vs Fulham, kick-off 12.30pm
May 10: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, kick-off 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
May 18: Aston Villa vs Spurs, kick-off 2.15pm
May 25: Man United vs Aston Villa, kick-off 4pm