There's still a chance! What are Arsenal, Liverpool's title percentages now?

The pack has shuffled at the Premier League summit but Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool are still divided by just two points.

Reigning champions Manchester City reclaimed the Premier League summit on Saturday after a 5-1 win over Luton and held top spot after Liverpool lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace and Arsenal lost 2-0 to Aston Villa.

Paul Merson described the run-in as “the best Premier League title run-in ever” a month ago but now believes the Gunners’ title chances are “100 per cent” over after their defeat to Villa.

Meanwhile, Liverpool have now suffered two shock defeats on the bounce in all competitions – having also lost 3-0 to Atalanta in the Europa League quarter-final first leg last week.

So, momentum now favours Pep Guardiola’s juggernauts. However, only six games remain and one wayward result – like this weekend – would flip fortunes again.

Meanwhile, the stats reveal it remains the joint-tightest title race ever: only on three previous occasions have two points or fewer divided first and third after 32 games.

The top three have been tussling since Christmas after Spurs and Aston Villa dropped out of the top three. You can hit play on the interactive table below to see how the table has changed throughout the campaign.

If things do go to the wire with points, Arsenal currently lead the battle for goal difference by some distance with +49, followed by Manchester City (+44) and Liverpool (+41).

As it stands, City are the form side among the challengers with an average return of 2.2 points per game over their previous five league outings, compared to Arsenal (2.0) and Liverpool (1.6).

So, how do the teams’ title chances fare?

MAN CITY

Reasons to be optimistic

City drew three in a row from mid-November before losing 1-0 at Aston Villa. However, Guardiola’s side are now unbeaten since December 6 as they look to see out the campaign in customary, dominant form.

Guardiola’s players know exactly what it takes to get over the line as they chase an unprecedented fourth consecutive title triumph.

Their strength in depth is unrivalled, allowing them to plough on even without players of the calibre of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland earlier in the season.

Reasons to be cautious

The fact no side has won four league titles in a row is the main one. Amid stiff competition from Liverpool and Arsenal, and still juggling three competitions, can they maintain the level required for a fourth consecutive season? There is a reason it has never been done before.

The other glimmer of hope for their rivals is they look more defensively vulnerable than in previous campaigns. Having shipped 32 goals in 32 games, they are conceding close to their highest rate under Guardiola, almost on a par with the 2016/17 campaign, when they finished third.

ARSENAL

Reasons to be optimistic

Arsenal suffered a dip over the festive period, losing three in five games, but had bounced back to almost perfect levels with 10 wins and one draw from 11 games – with an aggregate scoreline of 38-4 – before the shock defeat against Unai Emery’s side.

Additionally, the best defence usually wins titles and the Gunners have that this season. Their expected goals against total is unrivalled, reflecting their ability to suppress chances.

Reasons to be cautious

Arsenal’s players do not have the same level of trophy-winning experience as their rivals. Additionally, last season’s capitulation hangs over them. Having surrendered such a healthy lead over City, when it felt like they might never get a better chance, they now have much to prove: they must outperform City between now and May 19.

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The graphic below shows chances are drying up at the top end of the pitch, while Arteta’s side have also been conceding more clear-cut chances at the other end of the pitch, too.

LIVERPOOL

Reasons to be optimistic

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In terms of form, Liverpool have been the most consistent – never dropping points in more than two consecutive Premier League games. Currently, Liverpool have the worst form out of the three title challengers and Klopp’s side need three points from their upcoming visit to Fulham on April 21, live on Sky Sports.

Reasons to be cautious

They have conceded only 31 goals, the second-fewest after Arsenal, but is the current rate sustainable? The underlying numbers show they give their opponents far better chances than City and Arsenal, with 38.50 expected goals against (xGa) given up so far, compared to Arsenal’s 22.56 and City’s 30.82.

Who has the toughest run-in?

The graphic below shows each team’s upcoming Premier League fixtures, but which side has the easiest schedule?

The colours represent the difficulty of each opponent, based on current league position.

Liverpool’s average opponent ranks 9.3 in the table, which is slightly tougher than Arsenal’s (10.2) and Manchester City (10.5).

Predicted table

Manchester City are now favourites to win the title with a 68.1% chance, according to Opta’s supercomputer. Arsenal (20.1%) and Liverpool (11.8%) still, collectively, represent a 32 per cent chance of denying City their record fourth title.

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